Classic bike values

vibrac

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For my 10% max I was just using Bonhams records. For instance at Stafford in Oct a 51 Rapide sold for £ 26,450 with some doubt about numbers, ie, a good riders basis the sort of thing that I would snap up if I needed one. The key thing is by the stated mileage and pictures it had not been used or touched since it was bought at Bonhams in 2012 for £31,050 so thats about 15% drop . But (and this shows how easy comparisons are difficult) in the first sale the discrepancy in the numbers was not mentioned while they were in the second. The other points are
1. we are in that example looking at values over 7 years I have no doubt that using a shorter measure a larger fall might be quoted but realistically one owns a Vincent for a longer span than a year or so.
2. Its worth taking inflation into account which is what I tried to do in the charts 1955-2017 at the back of my book The Black Shadow. I think a little research is worth a lot of scuttle-buck.
 

Sakura

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My 20 to 30 percent is mostly in regard to common or garden bikes. I suspect that quality classic bikes are suffering less and 10 percent for a Vincent may well be right. I think interesting bikes, particularly V twins, will always have a value. However, it may be that some grey porridge will revert back to having next to no value. I well remember the early to mid 60s when most old bikes were worth next to nothing. I bought a Rapide and Blacknell sidecar for £30.00. All it needed to get it running was a decent fibre timing wheel. An immaculate RE Works Replica Trials Bullet for £15.00 etc, etc. Times change. From a personal point of view I would be happy if my Rapide was worth £5000, a Shadow, £6000 etc. It would be a financial loss for a start but think of the other bikes that you could have for little money.
 

Albervin

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I think we all need to look at Vincents as a world tradable item. The variations in exchange rates can have a big impact on whether you can sell for a profit or loss. For example, a 10% reduction in price in USD this year will translate to less than 5% in AUD values. If Brexit happens in our lifetime then we may also see varying terms of trade and (possibly) a drop in VAT in the UK. Stranger things have happened in these strange times.
 

Magnetoman

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I think we all need to look at Vincents as a world tradable item. ..., a 10% reduction in price in USD this year will translate to less than 5% in AUD values.
Australia seems to be pretty serious about imposing its 'zero tolerance' policy on importation of anything containing asbestos, which should skew the prices there. Even when exchange rates have a favorable change, there won't be much of a supply of certified asbestos-free Vincents to pour into the market from overseas.
 

Sakura

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So, what do real classic motorcycle enthusiasts (everybody reading this post), not collectors or Johnny come lately ("I had Vincent in the 60s, you know, the one with twin discs on the front wheel") think of my last statement on values?
 

greg brillus

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I think the bikes are only worth what someone will pay........And it is quite possible the number of "These People" are thinning out. With the changes in the world economy...........What use to be classed as a solid investment is not necessarily the case anymore. Yes the younger generations might take an interest in our bikes, but i think by the time they do it might be too late.
 

Albervin

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Firstly Magnetoman. Greetings. I imported a Black Shadow into Australia two years ago. I will not confirm or deny there was a substantial amount of asbestos in the AM4 brake linings. The bike sailed through customs.
Sakura. Yes and no. I think quality will always win out as investments and for long term owner/collectors. Grey porridge has merely benefitted from the trickle down effect. I always rebut the issue of young people vs old bikes by looking at the prices of veteran and vintage vehicles; they are on the up. Not sure what is happening but any quality pre 1920s machinery seem to be doing just fine and the mid 20s to 30s stuff seem to be holding station. The availability of parts for Vincents is a major plus when selling compared to Douglas, Sunbeam and Raleigh. I have no idea what Brough owners can get. What also interests me is I know a few 30 and 40 somethings who rent but own significant machinery. Priorities are changing maybe.
 

BigEd

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So, what do real classic motorcycle enthusiasts (everybody reading this post), not collectors or Johnny come lately ("I had Vincent in the 60s, you know, the one with twin discs on the front wheel") think of my last statement on values?
I understand that "the bottom line" i.e. money, is perhaps the most important issue for many people. For some it may the only issue. This obviously does not just for motorcycles but for many decisions we have to make, some large e.g. maybe purchasing a home and some small, e.g. do I buy a large coffee or regular.
I like to think that I fall into Sakura's "real classic motorcycle enthusiasts" category. I own a Vincent because I want to ride it, not as an investment. If personal circumstances mean it has to be sold because I need the money then naturally the more I could get the better but as Greg so rightly says, "bikes are only worth what someone will pay ".
For anyone that has a Vincent or Vincents stashed away watching markets and exchange rates go up and down, I suggest they will only ever know the true value of a Vincent by actually riding it.
 

Sakura

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I always rebut the issue of young people vs old bikes by looking at the prices of veteran and vintage vehicles; they are on the up. Not sure what is happening but any quality pre 1920s machinery seem to be doing just fine and the mid 20s to 30s stuff seem to be holding station.
[/QUOTE]
I agree that this does to seem the case. Remember, my original post quoted 50s bikes mainly. Mid 20s to late 30s bikes are quite rideable and have more of an "antique" look about them as opposed to many stodgy 50s bikes. This, of course, is all conjecture, only time will truly tell.
However, only Greg has come close to answering my question, do you really care about the monetary value of your bikes? Personally, as stated, I don't, only relatively, in that I wouldn't sell for less than current values to enrich someone else.
 

Magnetoman

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I imported a Black Shadow into Australia two years ago...
The "total" ban on asbestos has been in place since 2003, but my understanding is that it was only about two years ago that someone in power decided they needed to enforce it. Yours may have sneaked in just under the wire. By the way, the regulations are quite clear that even if you only temporarily send your bike out of Australia and then try to bring it back, that counts as importation and no asbestos is allowed.

There are too many points in this overall thread to pick quotes out of them, so I'll just make some random comments.

Overall, a decline in new motorcycle sales started at the time of the recession a decade ago and has continued. There are a mix of reasons for this. For example, the incredible array of motorcycle-related shops around Ueno Station in Tokyo already had nearly vanished as of a decade ago, heavily influenced by a change in Tokyo parking regulations that no longer favored motorcycles.

The steady rise in prices of Model T Fords that had continued for years hit a wall c1990 when people who had wanted them in their youth started rapidly aging their way out of the market. Younger people weren't there to take their place since the brakes and lack of h.p. of those cars made them suitable only for the occasional Sunday drive on quiet neighborhood roads. That is, in the modern world they were only good for looking at, not for using. I think it's a relevant aside to point out my 1928 Ariel 500 single had problems keeping up with traffic only on two 75+-mph segments of road when crossing the U.S. in the Cannonball last year (it actually could have kept up at that speed, but I was afraid reliability would suffer if I hammered it that hard).

A, say, BSA A7 can accelerate and brake with modern traffic but it's a motorcycle only someone who owned one 'back in the day' could love. So, it's not surprising if A7 prices start dropping as those starry-eyed oldsters age their way into retirement homes. Whether a BSA Gold Star suffers the same drop in price is subject to additional forces.

As to the question, do I really care about the monetary value of my bikes? The answer most certainly is 'yes'. All the money I squandered on motorcycles over the years is money my family didn't have available to squander on other things. So, I'd like to think when they sell off everything when I'm gone they can recoup as much of that squandered money as possible, and that they end up with roughly as much cash as they would have had if instead that money had been in stocks. That said, the bikes that bring the highest prices at Las Vegas auctions are shiny and in pristine external condition, so the fact I ride mine decreases their value. I mentally count my bikes as being worth as much as the highest prices paid for similar models at recent auctions, so the higher those prices, the better. But I know each of my bikes are worth a few dollars less because I ride them.
 
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